Octagon Prediction Markets Agent

Model Name: octagon-prediction-markets-agent

A high-fidelity research agent engineered for prediction market intelligence. It automates deep-dive reporting by analyzing Kalshi events (Polymarket soon) dynamics, surface-level catalysts, and probability discrepancies to provide a structured view of trade opportunities.

For a full list of supported markets, see octagonai.co/markets.

Billing

Report generation is only available to Octagon Plus, Octagon Pro, and Octagon Enterprise users, costing 3 credits per report. Cached reports are free for all users.

Model Variants

Depending on your use case, select the model variant that best suits your needs.

Model Name	Description
octagon-prediction-markets-agent	Default. Returns a cached report if one is available, otherwise generates a new one.
octagon-prediction-markets-agent:cache	Always retrieves the latest available cached report. Fastest response.
octagon-prediction-markets-agent:refresh	Always generates a fresh report. Most up-to-date. Takes several minutes to generate.

Key Capabilities

• Market vs. Model Probability Comparison. For every outcome, the agent computes an independent model probability and compares it against the live market price — making mispricings easy to spot at a glance.
• Event-Driven Research. Automatically identifies the key claims, catalysts, and decision-flipping events that could shift market prices before resolution.
• Historical Resolution Tracking. Surfaces past resolution outcomes for the same market series, giving context on base rates and prior accuracy.
• Contract Snapshot. Returns live bid/ask spreads, last traded price, volume, and open interest for each contract within the event.
• Cached & Fresh Reports. Supports cached report retrieval for speed, or on-demand generation for the latest data.
• Cross-Category Coverage. Covers 120+ active markets across Politics, Economics, Crypto, Sports, Entertainment, Science & Technology, Climate, and more.

Use Cases

The Prediction Markets Agent is best for:

• Quickly identify market mispricings between crowd consensus and model-derived probability
• Research key drivers behind a prediction market price before placing a trade
• Monitor upcoming catalysts that could move a contract's price
• Get structured, sourced research on fast-moving events in politics, finance, and beyond

Example Prompts

• Fed policy: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26jun
• Crypto price range: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcminy/how-low-will-bitcoin-fall-this-year/kxbtcminy-27jan01
• Sports matchup: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnhleast/eastern-conference-championship/kxnhleast-26
• Entertainment award: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgrammynomsoty/grammy-nominees-for-song-of-the-year/kxgrammynomsoty-69
• IPO timing: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxipospacex/when-will-spacex-ipo/kxipospacex

Code Examples

python

response = client.responses.create(
    model="octagon-prediction-markets-agent",
    input="https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-decision-in-jun-2026/kxfeddecision-26jun",
)

javascript

const response = await client.responses.create({
  model: "octagon-prediction-markets-agent",
  input:
    "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-decision-in-jun-2026/kxfeddecision-26jun",
});

curl

curl -X POST https://api-gateway.octagonagents.com/v1/responses \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer your-octagon-api-key" \
  -d '{
    "model": "octagon-prediction-markets-agent",
    "input": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-decision-in-jun-2026/kxfeddecision-26jun",
    "stream": true
  }' \
  --no-buffer

Forcing a Fresh Report (API)

To bypass the cache and generate a new report, use the :refresh model variant:

python

response = client.responses.create(
    model="octagon-prediction-markets-agent:refresh",
    input="https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcminy/how-low-will-bitcoin-fall-this-year/kxbtcminy-27jan01",
)

javascript

const response = await client.responses.create({
  model: "octagon-prediction-markets-agent:refresh",
  input:
    "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcminy/how-low-will-bitcoin-fall-this-year/kxbtcminy-27jan01",
});

curl

curl -X POST https://api-gateway.octagonagents.com/v1/responses \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer your-octagon-api-key" \
  -d '{
    "model": "octagon-prediction-markets-agent:refresh",
    "input": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcminy/how-low-will-bitcoin-fall-this-year/kxbtcminy-27jan01",
    "stream": true
  }' \
  --no-buffer

Forcing a Cached Report (API)

To always retrieve a cached report, use the :cache model variant:

python

response = client.responses.create(
    model="octagon-prediction-markets-agent:cache",
    input="https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcminy/how-low-will-bitcoin-fall-this-year/kxbtcminy-27jan01",
)

javascript

const response = await client.responses.create({
  model: "octagon-prediction-markets-agent:cache",
  input:
    "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcminy/how-low-will-bitcoin-fall-this-year/kxbtcminy-27jan01",
});

curl

curl -X POST https://api-gateway.octagonagents.com/v1/responses \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer your-octagon-api-key" \
  -d '{
    "model": "octagon-prediction-markets-agent:cache",
    "input": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcminy/how-low-will-bitcoin-fall-this-year/kxbtcminy-27jan01",
    "stream": true
  }' \
  --no-buffer